Friday, January 31, 2014

The Hard Part is Explaining Why You Do a Shot Every Time They Punt

I'm not Jimmy the Greek, a "clairvoyant manatee ", ( that will be the name of a jam band before kickoff ) a math professor, Stephen Hawking or Matt Damon in Good Will Hunting. I'm not even Minnie Driver in Good Will Hunting.
                                                 Sorry, this is is the kind of Minnie Driver pic
                                                   that happens when the Super Bowl is in Jersey.

But I can predict a couple things:
1. Most of you will flip five, ten or twenty dollars on Super Bowl squares. They are the most democratic form of gambling EVER. You don't need to know anything. You just hand someone your money. You don't even have to know who is playing, and if you don't know who's playing, you have something in common with Colin Kaepernick, who keeps yapping as though he gets another shot at Richard Sherman this Sunday (he doesn't).
I myself will get a square or two, because it does make the game ( especially blowouts ) much more interesting.It's fun, but it's not really betting.
Squares cause unusual, even rare things to happen. Like a pretty girl will actually ask me for my opinion.
"What has to happen for me to win my square?"
And I smile and say with a straight face "Each team needs to get a safety in the next three minutes and twenty three seconds."
And they say "How likely is that to occur ?" and I say "Not very, but if it does, you could win the rest of the squares, because both offensive coordinators will be outside doing exhaust hits off the Fox broadcast truck." So enjoy the squares, just don't strut around like you're Dewey Tomko.
2. No matter how many people verbally and in print blow Peyton Manning, Peyton Manning's work ethic, Peyton Manning's legacy, Peyton Manning's Steak House, Peyton Manning's appearance on Saturday Night Live, this game is gonna hit the under.
The " over/under" or "the number" for those of you who don't gamble on sports, is a number conjured up by a pod of intergalactic aliens in a basement outside of Reno that is based on how many points both teams will score combined during any particular game. And you can bet on it. Over or under (that didn't hurt, did it? Pretty simple, right, Screech?).
For Super Bowl XLVIII, that number is currently around XLVIII and i ( I don't know how to type a half in Roman Numerals. Someone call Roman Gabriel or Bill Romanowski ).
Everyone knows that there are no half points scored in football, unless you count these:


                                   You sure it isn't spelled "DuhSean" on your birth certificate ?

Which means if you bet the under, you think the two teams will score less than 48 points, and if you bet the over, you think the two teams will combine for 49 points or more.
If you bet the over/under, you have a 50/50 shot of winning. If you throw your money on a random square, you have about a 4 per cent chance of winning. Basically, you have a better chance of guessing how many grams of ambrosia salad Phil from market research will eat at the office Super Bowl party.
                                          Alessandra Ambrosio: I felt guilty about the
                                           Minnie Driver photo.

So here's the deal: This game is the North Going Zax vs. The South Going Zax ; the stingiest defense vs the most prolific offense. And the only way the stingiest defense can stay stingy is if their offensive mates run the ball. And Marshawn Lynch can run the ball. So can the guy handing him the ball, Russell Wilson. And the frigid Jersey temperature is gonna be conducive to running the ball as opposed to heaving it. Which means Manning will be perfectly happy handing it to Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball (who ran for about a million and twelve touchdowns playing in nippy Wisconsin).
If you're convinced that Peyton Manning is gonna shred Sherman and company and say "tanks for the memories", Archie's kid can throw a touchdown apiece to Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Eric Decker and the ghost of Dave Thomas, the Broncos D can surrender two touchdowns to Lynch, throw in a field goal by either Prater or Hauschka and that's still only 45 points, or XLV if you're Caligula.
If Caligula was still alive, he'd tell you to take inferus. And I am too. Just don't bet the coliseum.



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