The "Fantasy" in Fantasy Football has never been more apropos. I don't mean fantasy like Brad Hamilton spanking it to a topless Linda Barrett in Fast Times, I mean fantasy like the deep, time warping and perception altering of the magic in David Eddings tales.
The first "fantasy" sport was baseball, called "Rotisserie" after the restaurant in which the participants met. Complex, but simple. A hit was a hit, a strikeout was a strikeout, etc. Box scores had been with us for nearly a century in 1980 when Rotisserie baseball was created, and books, even encyclopedias had been written about the statistical magic of the game. The concept was transferred to football and the hobby/pastime/divorce accelerator exploded. I participated in my first Fantasy Football draft in 1990. No websites, no cheat sheets, just official rosters out of USA Today and eight sports nerds huddled around a coffee table drinking beer and basically shouting the names of our favorite players until we had a QB, two RB's...yeah, if you've read this far you get it.
The first "fantasy" sport was baseball, called "Rotisserie" after the restaurant in which the participants met. Complex, but simple. A hit was a hit, a strikeout was a strikeout, etc. Box scores had been with us for nearly a century in 1980 when Rotisserie baseball was created, and books, even encyclopedias had been written about the statistical magic of the game. The concept was transferred to football and the hobby/pastime/divorce accelerator exploded. I participated in my first Fantasy Football draft in 1990. No websites, no cheat sheets, just official rosters out of USA Today and eight sports nerds huddled around a coffee table drinking beer and basically shouting the names of our favorite players until we had a QB, two RB's...yeah, if you've read this far you get it.
That was Quest for Fire. Now, it's Star Trek TNG. Computer simulations, mocks, everything broken down and laid out for ya: "How many yards per carry does Aaron Ripowski have in domed stadiums after Thanksgiving when Aquarius is rising ? Get your $189.99 monthly Tagliaboom! Subscription and find out!"
Except the league changed the rules. The one about tackling. They have played exactly ZERO regular season games, since Roger "Is that my ass? I only have two hands, can someone help me find my ass?" Goodell and his merry band of head injury defendants decided that it is a 15 yard penalty and possible ejection if "A player lowers his helmet to establish a linear body posture prior to initiating and making contact with the helmet". Is that a lyric from Subterranean Homesick Blues I've forgotten ? How about " contact clearly avoidable and player delivering the blow had other options". Like what, Rog ? Twice Baked Potato instead of Soup ? The defensive player's job is to make contact with the guy with the ball, not save you 15% on your liability insurance.
There are no computer models to tell us how individual defensive players are going to adapt their game, there are only good guesses (based on preseason) which officials are more prone to flagging what was a legal tackle last fucking season and we've already seen players turning their backs on ballcarriers in the red zone because they have instinctively lowered their helmets already.
I don't care what your personal past performance in fantasy is, I don't care what the myriad draft projections say: You cannot come close to accurately predicting who is going to score because a fundamental element of the game has changed. You have no way of knowing who will adapt and who will be gathering hankies like the front row of an Elvis concert.
Just for fun: Print your projections or the projections of the fantasy football website you most trust. Tape them to the wall next to your Lawrence Phillips fathead and in January you can see what a complete disaster predicting this season has been.I guarantee you it will be more evil magic than it is Phoebe Cates topless.
